Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Severe Weather Advisory

EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTPZ32 KNHC 231432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...GREG MOVING WEST INTO A DRY AIR MASS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 129.0W
ABOUT 1380 MI...2225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 129.0 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn toward the
west-northwest at a slower forward speed is possibly by Monday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is anticipated through tonight, but some
weakening is likely to occur Monday and Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


WTPZ22 KNHC 231432
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.3N 130.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.7N 134.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.1N 138.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.9N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 129.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


WTPZ34 KNHC 231434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...HILARY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 102.3W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 102.3 West. Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Hilary is likely to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


WTPZ24 KNHC 231434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 102.3W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 102.3W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 101.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.1N 103.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.8N 104.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.6N 106.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 107.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.6N 115.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 19.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 102.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


WTPZ35 KNHC 230852
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...
...THE FIFTH NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN JULY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 115.2 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a west to
west-northwest motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


WTPZ25 KNHC 230852
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017
0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 115.2W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 115.2W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.9N 117.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.7N 121.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 14.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


FOPZ12 KNHC 231433
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM GREG WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

15N 130W 34 57 X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
15N 130W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

15N 135W 34 X 5( 5) 37(42) 8(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
15N 135W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
15N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)

$$
FORECASTER BERG


FOPZ14 KNHC 231434
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

10N 105W 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

15N 105W 34 5 55(60) 23(83) 2(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86)
15N 105W 50 X 10(10) 25(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
15N 105W 64 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)

BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)

15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 27(34) 38(72) 2(74) X(74)
15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 1(40) X(40)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22)

20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 5(42) 1(43)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 44(59) 7(66)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 5(33)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18)

15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) 4(40)
15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16)
15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)

20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 8(39)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)

25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



FOPZ15 KNHC 230852
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017
0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

15N 115W 34 17 1(18) 2(20) 1(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23)

10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 36(72) 3(75) 1(76)
15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 2(37) X(37)
15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14)

20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)

15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 16(39)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)

15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


FKPZ22 KNHC 231433
TCAPZ2

TROPICAL STORM GREG ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170723/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: GREG
NR: 025
PSN: N1418 W12900
MOV: W 12KT
C: 1001HPA
MAX WIND: 045KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 232100 N1418 W13008
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 240300 N1421 W13116
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 240900 N1427 W13225
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 241500 N1433 W13327
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 045KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170723/2100Z

$$


FKPZ22 KNHC 230850
TCAPZ2

TROPICAL STORM GREG ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017
0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170723/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: GREG
NR: 024
PSN: N1442 W12742
MOV: W 12KT
C: 1001HPA
MAX WIND: 045KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 231500 N1438 W12854
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 232100 N1436 W13006
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 240300 N1436 W13117
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 240900 N1439 W13224
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170723/1500Z

$$


FKPZ24 KNHC 231435
TCAPZ4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170723/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: HILARY
NR: 009
PSN: N1242 W10218
MOV: WNW 09KT
C: 1003HPA
MAX WIND: 040KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 232100 N1258 W10306
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 240300 N1316 W10349
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 055KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 240900 N1337 W10428
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 060KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 241500 N1400 W10509
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 070KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170723/2100Z

$$



FKPZ24 KNHC 230849
TCAPZ4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017
0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170723/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: HILARY
NR: 008
PSN: N1230 W10136
MOV: WNW 13KT
C: 1005HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 231500 N1254 W10224
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 232100 N1318 W10310
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 050KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 240300 N1342 W10355
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 055KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 240900 N1406 W10440
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 060KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170723/1500Z

$$



FKPZ25 KNHC 230853
TCAPZ5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017
0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20170723/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: IRWIN
NR: 004
PSN: N1442 W11512
MOV: WNW 08KT
C: 1005HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 231500 N1446 W11544
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 232100 N1449 W11615
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 240300 N1452 W11645
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 240900 N1455 W11715
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 045KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20170723/1500Z

$$


WTPN34 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 114.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 114.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.8N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.9N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.7N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.5N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.0N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 115.2W.
TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1087 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


WTPN33 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 101.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 101.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.1N 102.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.9N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.7N 105.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.0N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.0N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.0N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 101.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1510 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


TPPZ01 PGTW 231444

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA)

B. 23/1431Z

C. 19.99N

D. 150.75W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

DAVIS


TPPZ01 PGTW 231201

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA)

B. 23/1146Z

C. 19.78N

D. 150.31W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

DAVIS


TPPZ01 PGTW 230855

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA)

B. 23/0831Z

C. 19.85N

D. 149.50W

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

DAVIS

END OF REPORT
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