Tropical Storm Daniel Severe Weather Advisory

EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS


WTPZ35 KNHC 250233
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...DANIEL LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 116.4W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 116.5 West. Daniel is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the northwest at about the same forward speed is
expected to begin overnight. A steady westward motion is forecast
to begin on Tuesday. The cyclone should continue moving west until
it dissipates later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is expected over the next few days and Daniel is
forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


WTPZ25 KNHC 250232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018
0300 UTC MON JUN 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.9N 117.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.7N 118.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 120.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.1N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 116.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


FOPZ15 KNHC 250233
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018
0300 UTC MON JUN 25 2018

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


FKPZ25 KNHC 250233
TCAPZ5

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018
0300 UTC MON JUN 25 2018

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180625/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: DANIEL
NR: 005
PSN: N1754 W11624
MOV: NNW 09KT
C: 1003HPA
MAX WIND: 040KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 250900 N1834 W11704
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 251500 N1906 W11745
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 252100 N1930 W11827
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 030KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 260300 N1948 W11910
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 030KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20180625/0900Z

$$


WTPN31 PHNC 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 116.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 116.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.9N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.7N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.1N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.2N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.1N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
250400Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 116.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 913 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.
//
NNNN

END OF REPORT
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